The Indo-Pacific Century

One idea that has gained much currency is that just as the 18th century was the British Century and the 20th was the American one, the 21st will be the Asian Century. It's a very appealing idea, especially in the context of the history of colonialism. It would be a comeback story without parallel - an Asia devastated by the depredations of European colonialism rising again like a phoenix.

However, as appealing as this idea is, the 21st century can't be an Asian century for two main reasons. The first is that the power differential between China and everyone else in Asia is too large. If Asia were to dominate the world, it would actually just be China and hence it would be a Chinese Century. There are nascent signs of this around the world. e.g. the widespread reach of the Belt and Road Initiative as well as China now being the largest trading power in the world.

However, I don't think a Chinese Century is a realistic proposition either. The primary reason for this is simply because the US is too powerful. While its relative power may be in decline, in absolute terms the US is still the dominant economic and military power in the world. As it stands, it may very well also be the dominant military power in Asia. China's own acute structural problems, such as demographic collapse and a potentially dangerous debt burden, skew the dynamic further away from a Chinese Century.

Beyond just the US-China power differential, the increasing power of other parts of Asia also plays a key role in blunting Chinese dominance. Examples include India, South East Asia, and a resurgent Japan which is slowly shedding the ghosts of its past. All this sets up the creation of a multipolar Asia which will have many of its own internal tensions and fissures. A tense and divided Asia, no matter how prosperous and powerful it is, will hardly be able to lord it over the rest of the world.

Instead of an Asian or a Chinese Century, the particular constellation of a prosperous but fragmented Asia and a stubbornly resilient United States sets up a different paradigm for the century ahead. Amidst all the geopolitical turbulence, the one constant is the increasing economic and military power of countries in the Indo-Pacific. Slowly but surely, this region is becoming the center of the world. Europe, while critical during the Cold War, is receding into irrelevance as a de facto American vassal.

Just as the histories of the 20th century focus primarily on Paris, Berlin, and London, the histories of the 21st will center on Beijing, New Delhi, and Tokyo. What will remain constant across both centuries is the centrality of Washington DC. Therefore, just as the 20th was the Euro-Atlantic Century, the 21st will be the Indo-Pacific Century.